AI, Nukes, and Hypocrisy: Why Global Powers Will Never Disarm
In the current expanding security landscape, any agreement or initiative regarding Artificial Intelligence (AI)-powered weaponry is expected to have limited success in achieving its desired outcomes. Just as no treaty in the nuclear age could permanently halt the spread of atomic weapons, similarly, in the realm of AI, no agreement will be supposed to have the capacity to curb the development of AI-driven military technology. Treaties do not fail due to unclear or ambiguous terms but because of the failure in their proper execution. Such treaties are often used as tools by the superpowers to put pressure on or reduce the power of countries with whom they have ideological conflicts. These regulations are like a spider’s web, causing trouble only for the weak. Take the example of the USA’s double standard in non-proliferation policies toward Iran and Israel: despite that, it is still not confirmed that Iran has developed nuclear weapons, and it is under the sanctions and pressure from the Western powers. In stark contrast, the US turns a blind eye to Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal. Though the US claims to be a champion of non-proliferation, its vast and modernized nuclear arsenal exposes the contradiction in its disarmament policies.
Behind the façade of disarmament, great powers possess the largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons along with ever-more-sophisticated destructive technologies. Despite condemning nuclear weapons as a threat to humanity, nuclear-armed states are either developing or deploying new weapon systems. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), nuclear warheads deployed with operational capacity have increased from 3720 in 2020 to 3825 in 2021. Paradoxically, in 2022, Russia, China, the UK, France, and the US (permanent UNSC members) issued a joint statement at the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) 2022 Review Conference asserting that nuclear war cannot be won and must be avoided. The louder they advocate for peace and disarmament, the more quietly they develop devastating arms. Such glaring contradictions raise questions about the legitimacy of treaties.
The major obstruction in the proper implementation of treaties for the reduction of destructive arms is the element of rivalry among various states. The competition among major powers to maintain superiority is a major reason that brings them to the forefront of developing destructive weapons despite preaching restraint. Even though they not only develop but also ensure that other states can never gain an upper hand, causing the advancement and enhancement of harmful weapons rather than disarmament. If one country develops a destructive weapon system, other states attempt to surpass it by creating more advanced and lethal military technologies. The nuclear arms race during the Cold War, between the USA and the USSR has resulted in acquisition and testing of the atom bomb, Hydrogen bomb the Tsar Bomba, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), and eventually, advances in tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles. Once again, the same competitive behavior that caused the race for nuclear superiority has become the driving force behind technological superiority. The ongoing AI arms race and Sino-U.S. rivalry will play out in more horrific, unimaginable, and unwanted future consequences because the rampant investment is being deployed by great powers in AI-powered military technology to get such kind of advanced weapons that can create massive destruction in warfare—without human oversight. For instance, the development of FH-97Athe drone by China and the US’s plan to deploy a fleet of 1000 fighter drones—fighting alongside piloted fighters—illustrates the escalating rivalry and the rapid advancement of autonomous-powered weapons. Simultaneously, nations like Russia, Israel, and India are not lagging in the race for autonomous-powered technologies, further escalating tensions and signaling another race for dominance in Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia. This mindless pursuit of power is the root cause of the failure of treaties on weaponry limitation or disarmament.
Following the nuclear arms race, humanity must learn from its past mistakes and take proactive measures to replace competition with cooperation to prevent the development of new, perilous technologies and destructive weaponry systems. However, it would be a herculean task to establish a rules-based order for new weapon systems while current regulations are being deteriorated by existing weapons. In reality, the champions of disarmament are, paradoxically, the ones fuelling the arms race. The evil actions of great powers suggest that they are not averse to running with the hare and hunting with the hounds.
The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Spine Times.
Saqlain Haider Cheema
The author is a columnist with a keen interest in political and global affairs.
